The numbers, updated
Leadership in this situation looks like an instrument panel, not a siren. These are the gauges we read in public — sources named, estimates labeled, movement reported honestly in both directions.
Fuel at the pump, Hilo
War to shelf, verified — day 102
The war began February 28, 2026. The honest causal chain runs: war → oil and bunker prices → carrier fuel surcharges and diesel-inflated barge and truck legs → landed grocery cost. Every figure below is from a primary statistical source; post-February numbers are dated because the war is recent.
| Indicator | Pre-war → now | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI, all items (YoY) | 2.4% → 4.2% (3.3% Mar, 3.8% Apr) — highest since Apr 2023 | May 2026 | BLS |
| Honolulu CPI (YoY) | +3.7%, above national; energy +6.9% over two months | Mar 2026 | BLS West |
| Brent crude | $72 → $118 (Q1 close) → $107 May avg → ~$91 spot | Jun 10, 2026 | EIA STEO |
| Matson fuel surcharge (FRSC) | 16.5% → 28.0% (Apr 12) → 31.5% (Jun 7) — +15 points on nearly every imported container | Jun 7, 2026 | carrier notice |
| Nitrogen fertilizer, US retail | anhydrous ammonia +35.6% ($828 → $1,123/ton); UAN +24.5%. Phosphate and potash held (DAP +0.9%, potash +2.4%) | Apr–May 2026 | farmdoc |
| Hilo diesel | $7.09/gal, ~+36% YoY; Hilo regular $5.61; state diesel $7.07 | Jun 10, 2026 | AAA · initiative tracker |
| US on-highway diesel | $5.21/gal, +50% YoY; US regular gasoline $4.15, +33% | wk of Jun 8, 2026 | EIA |
Attribution discipline: trans-Pacific spot freight roughly doubled over the same window, but the drivers are mostly early peak-season and tariff front-running, which the war compounds through bunker fuel and surcharges — we do not say "the war doubled shipping." The full assessment, with the 2020 and 1949 calibrations, is Paper 01: Threat Assessment.
The watchlist: what we read, and why
From Paper 01, §8 — the leading indicators between the war and this island's shelves, each with its cadence and its reason.
| Gauge | Cadence | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Matson FRSC notices | event-driven (30-day notice up; cuts immediate) | The cleanest war-to-shelf paper trail. Honest in both directions. |
| ● AAA Hilo diesel (gasprices.aaa.com) | daily — our own logger since January | The island's trucking and farm cost floor. $7.09 today. |
| EIA weekly diesel/gasoline | weekly (Tuesdays) | The national fuel trend the barge line floats on. |
| EIA Hawaiʻi product stocks | monthly | The only public input to days-of-fuel estimates. |
| Drewry WCI / SCFI | weekly | Freight spillover — read with the attribution discipline above. |
| World Bank fertilizer (Pink Sheet) / urea spot | monthly | The nitrogen channel — the input that broke. |
| BLS Honolulu CPI | bimonthly | The May print (~mid-June) is the first Hawaiʻi reading covering the April peak. |
| Hormuz flows (EIA STEO) | monthly+ | Upstream supply. Crude is off its peak and still volatile. |
| Par Kapolei July 2026 turnaround (Star-Advertiser) | dated window | The state's only refinery down for maintenance mid-war, leaning harder on Korean product. |
| Any war-risk premium on a Pacific or Hawaiʻi lane | event | The insurance valve that closes sea lanes without a blockade. Today: none. Its appearance is the escalation signal. |
| Young Brothers rate trajectory (Paper 08) | continuous | Three rate increases in twelve months (18.1% interim → PUC 25.75% → SB 2694 automatic, wharfage-indexed ≤5%/yr: +3% July 1, plus wharfage). Compounding all cost-push layers. |
Update cadence at a glance: the Hilo fuel line and chart refresh daily from the initiative's own AAA logger; EIA pump prices print weekly on Tuesdays and Drewry freight weekly; EIA Hawaiʻi stocks, World Bank fertilizer, and the EIA STEO monthly; FRSC and war-risk items are event-driven.
Thresholds, stated in advance
With County Civil Defense, the initiative proposes published escalation thresholds — planning triggers agreed before they are needed: for example, FRSC at or above 35%; Hilo diesel at or above $8.00; derived gasoline cover below five days; any Hawaiʻi-lane war-risk surcharge. Crossing one doesn't mean alarm. It means the next pre-agreed action starts. That is the difference between leadership and reaction.
The honest days-of-supply note
No agency publishes a days-of-supply figure for food or fuel in Hawaiʻi, and no per-island split exists — that absence is itself a finding, and a standing policy ask of this initiative. Computed from federal stock and consumption series (EIA Hawaiʻi primary stocks against SEDS consumption), the state held roughly 42–59 days of distillate and 5–9 days of finished gasoline (~22–29 days counting blending components) over the latest published months — primary stocks only, excluding retail tanks. The often-quoted "5–7 days of food" is a planning estimate, never an inventory census. We publish the method along with the number, and we will publish it when it improves, too.